Fire and Floods: Adapting to our Changing Climate

Our climate is changing – that much we already know.

In the past 40 years, temperatures on Earth have slowly risen at an average rate of 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade.

This has had devastating implications. From soaring temperatures that have caused destructive wildfires, droughts, and deadly heatwaves; to hurricanes, cold snaps and cyclones.

Torrential rain has caused catastrophic flooding destroying homes and taking lives.

Since the year 2000, the world has encountered more than 7,000 natural disasters – costing more than a million lives.

In the same period, an average of seven million acres of land has been burnt by wildfires each year – more than double than in the previous decade.

Closer to home, the UK is estimated to be 6% wetter than in previous decades, with more severe storms striking more frequently in recent years.

Scientists say extreme weather events can largely be blamed on rising greenhouse gas emissions, but efforts are being made across the globe to slow the warming of the planet and mitigate some of the impacts

However, experts, including researchers from Manchester Met, argue that although effort to reduce carbon emissions and slow warming – known as climate mitigation – is vital, we must also learn to live with some of the irreversible impacts of our changing climate.

They say we must start thinking more innovatively and strategically about how we can adapt our environments to protect people and property against escalating climate hazards – building more resilient cities in the future.

Dr Gina Cavan, Senior Lecturer in Geographic Information Systems and Climate at Manchester Met said: “We already experience a variable climate, with heatwaves and flooding frequently occurring.

“If we adapt to these extremes now it will help today and in the future.”

Climate adaptation and mitigation

“Climate adaptation and being climate resilient is not a cop-out for climate change and for making progress with climate change mitigation,” explained Dr Paul O’Hare, Senior Lecturer in Urban Geography and Development at Manchester Met.

“It is not a case of saying ‘let’s just deal with the consequences of climate change instead of trying to mitigate those impacts’.

“Everything that is being done around climate mitigation – so trying to reduce the impacts of climate change – is vitally important and still needs to be stepped up, and hopefully we will see some progress in this area.

“But we also need to acknowledge the fact that no matter what happens with emissions – even if we could somehow turn them off overnight – we are still faced with severe implications, across the globe, due to our warming climate.

“So climate adaptation means looking at climate change and saying ‘sadly, it is here, we are too late to reverse a lot of the impacts of it, and so we need to adapt our environments and create resilience to cope with the associated risks’.

“That said, anything we can do to mitigate this warming – even by fractions of degrees – will make the job of adapting to our new climate that bit easier.”

Implications of warming in the UK

We are already seeing the consequences of our warming climate – reflected in the severe weather events happening in every corner of the globe.

The UK is no exception, with frequent recordbreaking temperatures, and storms and flooding battering towns and cities more now than ever before.

Rising temperatures are largely to blame for these events, with the average temperature in the UK over the last decade increasing by around 0.8 degrees Celsius – with temperatures only set to rise.

It’s not only flooding we need to be mindful of, but the impact that much hotter summer days will have on the city

But what impact will that have on local weather systems in the future? And how should we be preparing for these impacts?

Dr O’Hare explained: “The climate of the future is going to be warmer; it is going to be wetter; we will see even more storms and more convectional rainfall during the summer that will lead to even more flash flooding events.”

But Dr O’Hare says it’s not only flooding we need to be mindful of, but the impact that much hotter summer days will have on the city.

Heatwave events already account for scores of deaths in the UK, causing serious health risks for those with heart and lung conditions.

He explained: “Most of the buildings that we currently occupy have been built for a very different climate.

“In fact, we are still constructing buildings that will not be able to ventilate or cool down sufficiently in 20 or 30 years’ time.

“This is a big concern as there is a serious risk that the hotter days will actually cause more deaths in the future – as we see more deaths recorded during heatwave events, which will become more frequent.

“This is why we urgently need to start thinking about how we are constructing buildings and how we can ensure they will be comfortably habitable for years to come.”

A more climate-resilient Manchester

Researchers are also working on ways in which Greater Manchester can adapt to our changing climate in the future.

Dr Cavan’s research looks at strategies cities can adopt to defend against climate hazards like flooding and heatwaves – with one possible solution being found in urban domestic gardens.

She explained: “Private gardens are incredibly important to cities because they take up a large portion of land.

“In Manchester for example, where we conducted our research, 20% of the city is made up of private gardens, which have the potential to contain a large amount of green infrastructure.”

Implementing more green infrastructure is one tactic she says can support climate resilience.

Dr Cavan added: “If we think about heatwaves – green surfaces like grass, hedges and plants provide evapotranspiration, which means they cool the surrounding air – so the more green spaces that we have, the cooler the air will be around those spaces.

“On top of evapotranspiration, trees also provide shading – further increasing cooling.

“When it comes to flooding, if water is poured onto a hard, urban surface like tarmac, it sits on top of it.

“If you did the same to a natural surface like grass, it would infiltrate into the soil and percolate a lot slower – or plants will capture and use some of the water.

“So, when we have water coming down, hitting surfaces like tarmac and paving, and running off very quickly into drains, that can cause flooding as they cannot support so much water – or it might be that we get surface-water flooding as there is nowhere for that water to go.”

So how can urban domestic gardens – and garden owners – play a role in defending against these climate hazards?

“Domestic gardens have the potential to have real impact in a city and how it is able to tackle climate resilience in the future – but that is entirely dependent on the individuals who own that land and the changes they make to their gardens,” explained Dr Cavan.

The research – named the My Back Yard project – showed that in Manchester, domestic gardens were made up of just 50% green infrastructure including grass and vegetation, with the other half of garden space comprising of a mixture of other surfaces, which do little to defend against climate risks.

Dr Cavan added: “Following this research, what we hope to do is encourage more people, not just in Manchester, but further afield as well, to do more to in their own gardens to support climate resilience.

“Our latest public engagement project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, seeks to do exactly this.

“The project team at Manchester Met, including me, Dr Rachel Dunk, Dr Mark Peace and Dr John Lean, is working with RHS Bridgewater Garden and Legoland Discovery Centre Manchester to run workshops to inform people how to create climate resilient gardens.

“People don’t realise the impact that they can have on improving their neighbourhood’s ability to cope with heatwaves, flooding, drought, air pollution and support wildlife, and we will discuss this creatively using Lego.”

Domestic gardens have the potential to have real impact in a city and how it is able to tackle climate resilience in the future

Dr O’Hare is also working on developing a vision for a more resilient Manchester in the future. His work with the Manchester Climate Change Agency aims to refresh the climate change policy for the region.

He says action is needed to ensure the buildings of the future are not designed for the climate of today, and outlines some approaches already being implemented across the city:

“We must integrate more green and blue infrastructure,” Dr O’Hare said.

“So, more trees, more waterways, more sustainable urban drainage systems – things that can be integrated into urban environments that will hopefully begin to alleviate some of the more worrying aspects of climate change.

“For example, making sure we have good quality urban green spaces integrated into our built  environments in the future.

“This is because trees and vegetation – which also provide a really nice public amenity – will provide urban cooling in the summers of the future and soak up some of the excess water we are likely to see more and more of.

“We are already seeing some nice examples of these appearing across Greater Manchester. A climate-resilient park has been installed – also known as the park that drinks water – which provides sustainable urban drainage that not only collects rainwater and water from nearby highways but also removes some of the pollutants from that water.

“This is what we need to see more of – this is the Manchester that will be climate-ready.”